It’s no longer a remote hypothesis. It’s operational reality.
Since early April 2026, four Italian airports — Bologna, Milan Linate, Venice, and Treviso — have issued NOTAMs (Notice to Air Missions) signaling reduced availability of Jet A1 kerosene, with priority given to medical flights, state flights, and routes exceeding three hours. The reason is simple: the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of global oil transits, has disrupted the aviation fuel supply chain to Europe.
The last shipment of jet fuel from the Persian Gulf is expected in Rotterdam on April 9. After that date, no new tankers are known to be in transit. The spot price of kerosene has nearly doubled since the conflict began, rising from approximately 96 to 197 dollars per barrel. European airlines — Ryanair first, followed by Lufthansa and Air France-KLM — have raised the alarm: if the war in Iran does not end by late April, summer 2026 will see massive cancellations and unprecedented fare increases.
But there’s an entire supply chain that no one is talking about. Those who work on the ground, every day, with tourists who arrive (or don’t arrive) at their destination. We’re talking about Tour Leaders, Tour Operators, and all incoming tourism professionals who are experiencing this crisis on the front line, without a safety net.
The Current Scenario: Why Flights Are Being Cancelled
To understand the scale of the crisis, consider this: according to IATA (International Air Transport Association), 25-30% of European demand for aviation fuel comes from the Gulf region. Italy, Spain, and Greece are among the most exposed countries, heavily dependent on tanker routes through the Suez Canal and the Eastern Mediterranean.
Michael O’Leary, Ryanair’s CEO, was the first to speak openly: the Irish carrier is considering cancelling between 5% and 10% of flights scheduled for May, June, and July. Lufthansa reports operational difficulties at several Asian airports. Air France-KLM’s CEO Ben Smith described a disturbing scenario: a plane landing in Asia and not finding enough fuel for the return journey.
In Italy, ENAC has tried to downplay the situation, attributing the difficulties to Easter peak traffic, but has acknowledged that a prolonged conflict will bring concrete consequences. The Save group (Venice, Treviso, Verona) confirmed limited restrictions to a single supplier. But the overall picture remains fragile: the closure of several European refineries in recent years has widened the structural kerosene deficit, making the continent vulnerable to any supply disruption.
The Tour Leader’s Perspective: Delays, No-Shows, and Managing the Unexpected
For those who professionally accompany tourist groups, the fuel crisis isn’t a newspaper headline. It’s an operational problem that manifests in three very concrete ways.
1. Systematic Delays and Rescheduling
A flight landing three hours late isn’t just an inconvenience for the passenger. For the Tour Leader, it means rebuilding an entire itinerary in real-time: restaurants to reschedule, guided tours to rearrange, coaches waiting that generate additional costs. Anyone working in incoming tourism knows that punctuality is the backbone of a well-organized tour. When this fails due to systemic causes — not the occasional single delay, but a structural trend — the entire value chain falters.
2. No-Shows: When the Client Doesn’t Arrive
The most insidious phenomenon is the crisis-induced no-show. The client booked a tour, the flight gets cancelled the day before, and the Tour Leader finds themselves at the meeting point waiting for people who will never arrive. Or worse: the client arrives a day late, has missed half the tour, and still expects the full service.
For a freelance Tour Leader, a no-show means an unpaid working day. There’s no guarantee fund, no furlough scheme, no safety cushion. If the Tour Operator doesn’t have a clear compensation policy for no-shows caused by flight cancellations, the professional on the ground is left exposed.
3. Managing the Group’s Emotions
Let’s not underestimate the human aspect. A group of tourists whose flight was delayed by six hours arrives tired, frustrated, often angry. The Tour Leader is the first person they meet at their destination. They become the lightning rod for a frustration they didn’t cause and cannot resolve. The ability to manage these situations — with empathy, professionalism, and concrete solutions — is what distinguishes a prepared Tour Leader from one who improvises.
The Tour Operator’s Perspective: Eroding Margins
For Tour Operators, the fuel crisis is a direct attack on profitability. Travel packages sold months ago were calculated on airfare costs that are now obsolete. With Brent touching peaks of 120 dollars per barrel and airline ticket prices surging, many operators find themselves running tours at a loss.
Fixed Costs vs. Variable Revenue
The TO has already paid for guides, booked hotels, reserved restaurants. If the flight gets cancelled and the group doesn’t arrive, those costs remain. Rebooking on alternative flights — when possible — generates additional costs that often cannot be passed on to the end client. The result is margin erosion that, for small to medium operators, can mean the difference between closing the year in profit or at a loss.
The Domino Effect on Future Bookings
The perception of instability slows new bookings. Organized tourism is suffering a double penalty: expensive fuel and the strengthening of the dollar against the euro. Two factors that directly impact air transport costs and, consequently, travel package prices. Faced with uncertainty, clients postpone. And a tourist who postpones is a tourist who often never books.
Refund and Cancellation Policies: What the Law Says and What Platforms Do
EU Regulation 261/2004
European regulations are clear on passenger rights in case of cancellation or prolonged delay. Passengers are entitled to: full ticket refund or alternative flight, assistance (meals, drinks, possible accommodation), and in case of cancellation with less than 14 days’ notice, compensation up to €600 depending on flight distance.
But beware: restrictions due to fuel shortages from the conflict would fall under extraordinary circumstances not attributable to the airlines. This means the right to financial compensation (the €250-600) might not be recognized, although the right to ticket refund or rebooking remains valid.
OTA Platforms: Viator, GetYourGuide and Similar
For tours and experiences booked through platforms like Viator, the standard policy provides a full refund if cancelled at least 24 hours before the experience. But what happens when the client can’t cancel because they don’t yet know their flight will be cancelled?
Viator operates with a clear logic: cancellation responsibility falls on the booker. If the client doesn’t show up (no-show), the operator is not required to refund. If the client cancels beyond the deadline, the penalty applies. The fact that the cause is a cancelled flight doesn’t change the contractual terms with the platform.
For Tour Operators or Tour Leaders working on these platforms, this creates a dangerous gray zone. The client requests a refund citing force majeure. The platform responds by applying contractual terms. The operator, in the middle, must decide whether to refund to preserve their reputation (and reviews) or stick to the terms risking negative feedback.
Terms of Service: Why They Must Be Crystal Clear
This crisis demonstrates how crucial it is to have clear, complete, and up-to-date Terms and Conditions. Freelance Tour Leaders and small TOs must specify in their contracts:
- Force majeure cancellation policy (conflicts, calamities, fuel shortages)
- No-show liability when not attributable to the client (airline-cancelled flight)
- Rescheduling terms: until when can the client move the tour without penalties?
- Limitation of liability clause for flight delays and indirect consequences
- Recommended insurance: specify that the client is advised to insure their trip
A TO working with Viator, GetYourGuide, or any other OTA must verify that their own conditions are aligned but not contradictory with the platform’s terms. In case of conflict, the platform’s terms almost always prevail.
What Changes Operationally: Concrete Challenges
For the Traveler
- Price increases: airline tickets for summer 2026 are already significantly higher
- Uncertainty: not knowing whether your flight will actually operate creates anxiety and trip abandonment
- Insurance: more than ever, purchasing a cancellation coverage policy is advisable, though costs can reach up to 8% of the entire holiday
- Alternative destinations: growing interest in destinations reachable by land or short flights
For the Tour Leader
- Flexible programming: prepare backup plans for every tour day
- Proactive communication: inform the group about possible issues before arrival
- Documentation: keep written records of every delay and program change
- Contract updates: revise engagement terms to include fuel crisis clauses
- Professional network: maintain quick contacts with colleagues for coverage and substitutions
For the Tour Operator
- Package revision: consider safety margins on timing and buffers between landing and activities
- Updated contractual clauses: explicit references to the fuel crisis as force majeure
- Supplier diversification: don’t depend on a single air carrier
- Transparent communication: proactively inform clients while suggesting insurance
- Constant monitoring: follow daily NOTAMs, airline communications, and IATA updates
Conclusion: Prepare for the Worst, Work for the Best
The 2026 fuel crisis is not an isolated event. It’s the result of a convergence between geopolitical instability, Europe’s structural energy dependence, and the fragility of the air transport logistics chain. For those working in tourism — from the freelancer accompanying a group of 15 people to the large TO moving thousands of passengers — the only possible response is preparation.
Updating contracts, diversifying routes, building contingency plans, communicating transparently. These aren’t options: they’re professional obligations. Those who manage this crisis with competence and vision will emerge stronger. Those who ignore it, waiting for it to pass, risk finding themselves without clients, without margins, and without answers when the next group asks: “Our flight was cancelled. Now what?”
Now we work. With method, professionalism, and the cold head that distinguishes a tourism professional from an amateur.